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Epidemic affects international freight and mail, China's rapid recovery
Release Time:2020-8-15 15:25:17
The global air cargo industry is currently making adjustments to the impact of the new crown pneumonia, and the "pause button" has been pressed on some flights. At the same time, the Chinese market is one step ahead. Under the premise that the epidemic prevention and control is showing a positive trend, the freight volume is accelerating to return to the normal level before the epidemic.

  Global cargo charter flights are more than ever

  At the beginning of March, British Airways stated that due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia, aviation demand has been declining. It has cancelled more than a dozen flights from London to the United States, and previously suspended flights to mainland China, Singapore, South Korea and Italy. Some short-haul flights to France, Germany and several other European countries have also been temporarily cancelled. Israeli airline Ei Ai has also suspended several flights to Asia and Europe countries and regions such as Vietnam, Budapest, Brussels and Frankfurt to reduce cost losses. In addition, airlines from the United States, Austria, Singapore and other countries have said that they have suspended some flights to varying degrees due to the passenger flow and cost caused by the epidemic.

Facing the unfavorable situation of air transportation, Agility, a well-known international freight forwarding and logistics company that signed a memorandum of cooperation with JD Logistics last year, pointed out in a recent update report that although China has set some restrictions for epidemic prevention, Chinese airports are operating smoothly. Any massive backlog occurs.

  Agility stated that at present, the number of chartered flights for German-Chinese trade is higher than usual. Charter flights from Germany to Beijing, Shanghai, Zhengzhou, Xiamen and Hong Kong leave enough space for flexible adjustments according to customer needs. With the exception of China, charter flights have increased in most markets.

  It took less than a week for the overall recovery of China’s imports

American Shipper reported: “Finally, there is some good news about the new crown pneumonia and the global supply chain: the rapid recovery of freight and shipments at Chinese ports confirms that global trade is returning to normal track.” Of course, this is also in line with it. It is a common practice for port workers and truck drivers to return to work after the Chinese New Year holiday. Inbound and outbound goods delayed during the Spring Festival are already in transit or a transportation contract has been signed.

  Data released in February by the American hedge fund CargoMetrics, which specializes in shipping trade data, shows that compared with 2012~2019, China's import and export goods have dropped significantly over the same period. At the same time, due to the close relationship between China and Australia's iron ore and coal commodity trade and transportation, Australia's export volume is also one of the data to judge China's trade status. CargoMetrics said that from February 13th to 17th, Australia's transaction volume increased, and it takes about 10-15 days for dry bulk carriers to transport from Australia to China. This means that China's import data may rebound by then. Therefore, the beginning of March The data is worth watching.

  From the latest data released by CargoMetrics in early March, China’s import and export trade freight volume has returned to historical normal levels. Dan Brutlag, the company’s head of trade and data products, said that in terms of imports, the decline before mid-February was mainly affected by dry bulk, and then quickly recovered. Energy imports and exports have fully recovered, and container imports are higher than before the Spring Festival. "After hitting the low point, it took less than a week for China's imports to recover overall." Starting in mid-February, export freight volumes have also begun to rebound.

  Brutlag pointed out that tracking the import and export trade of other countries that are more affected by the new crown pneumonia such as South Korea, Italy and Iran found that there was no unusual trend in early March.

  CargoMetrics CEO Scott Borgerson said that research shows that the supply chain has basically returned to normal, and everyone should look forward rationally.

  China brings hope to other countries to control the crisis

Clarksons Platou Securities (Clarksons Platou Securities) research general manager Frode Morkedal stated in a customer report on March 2 that “after the economic slowdown under the dual impact of the Spring Festival and the new crown pneumonia, we have seen various industrial activities in China. It starts to grow, and the ability of the economy to continue to improve far exceeds the destructive impact. Unfortunately, the momentum of the epidemic spreading globally is uncertain." According to Morkedal, data show that there were significant signs of recovery in Chinese ports in the last week of February, and it is necessary to observe whether this trend is sustainable.

  Morkedal believes that China’s GDP growth, energy demand, consumer purchasing power, and industrial activity remain to be seen. “In the short term, the uncertainty of the epidemic has a significant impact on energy consumption and consumer purchasing power, but these are usually temporary, and industrial activities are more likely to be delayed rather than destroyed. In short, the apparent improvement currently visible in China can at least make Other countries see that the control crisis is very promising."

Alan Murphy, the founder of the Danish-based container shipping consulting company Sea Intelligence, said in a press release issued on March 2 that although the impact of the new crown pneumonia outbreak on container transportation continues, the degree is weakening, which shows that transportation companies have The volume rebounded to a normal level with confidence. However, Murphy reminded that container shipping companies from the U.S., Europe and Asia must plan their return shipping.
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